What the hell are we supposed to do with that??

This Week's Mortgage + Media Update with JohnB

Author

John Birke
December 11, 2023

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

December 11th, 2023

Last Week:

Some good news and some things to maybe look forward to? How the hell are we supposed to process that?? It’s like jumping in the bathtub after a snowball fight… that you’re loosing badly!

  1. Home affordability is pure garbage of course, but it might not be so bad in 2024

  2. Consumers are feeling a lot better about the future

  3. Congress might actually help us out??

  4. Either AI is helping us or our bosses are screwing us

  5. Jobs are looking both nicely down and badly up??

  6. Rate cuts might be sooner and swifter than we expected!

Plus, Google just launched and AI tool that might just change everything about the robot race!

Really quick, if someone forwarded this email to you, don’t settle for being at mooch. Sign up and get it for yourself here 👇

Ok, now let’s get to it!

 The Mortgage Part 

Check out this week’s video 📽👇

🏡 Home Affordability: In the gutter with high rates and prices staying stubborn amidst elevated demand. But there’s hope for 2024…

2023 Has Been The Least Affordable Year for Homebuying on Record—But 2024 Is Looking Up

A homebuyer with the median U.S. income would’ve had to spend a record 41% of earnings on monthly housing costs in 2023, up from 31% in 2021.

www.redfin.com/news/housing-affordability-at-record-low-2023

📈 Consumer Sentiment: Surprisingly up for the first time in months as Americans feel the relief of dropping inflation

Consumer Sentiment Jumps 13% to Erase Four Months of Declines

As gas prices fall, consumers across a range of demographics had better expectations of inflation, helping drive overall consumer sentiment higher in December.

www.investopedia.com/consumer-sentiment-up-13-erasing-four-month-decline-8413441

📈 Congress: Dems push legislation that would ban much of Wall Street from the housing market and open opportunities for homebuyers. But can it pass?

Democrats Unveil Bill to Ban Hedge Funds From Owning Single-Family Homes Amid Housing Crisis

The bill would force hedge funds to sell all of their single-family home stock over the next 10 years.

truthout.org/articles/democrats-introduce-bill-banning-hedge-funds-from-owning-single-family-homes

💪 Working Hard: We got a lot more productive recently! Could this be a result of the adoption of AI in the workplace? Or just companies squeezing more from their workforce?

U.S. productivity surged in the third quarter

The productivity of American workers rose by a revised 5.2% annual rate in the third quarter, the government said Wednesday. It is the fastest pace since the...

www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-productivity-surges-in-the-third-quarter-14be1594

📉 Job Openings: Unexpectedly drop to pandemic-era lows as broader economy continues to show signs of a slowdown

Job openings slide to 8.7 million in October, well below estimate, to lowest level since March 2021

Employment openings totaled 8.73 million for the month, a decline of 617,000, or 6.6%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/job-openings-slide-to-8point7-million-in-october-well-below-estimate.html

👷‍♀️ New Work: Defiantly showed that hiring was stronger than we thought last month as strike season ends and holiday season begins

U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November, unemployment rate falls to 3.7%

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 190,000 in November, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/jobs-report-november-2023-us-payrolls-rose-199000-in-november-unemployment-rate-falls-to-3point7percent.html

😱 Who Said Rate Cuts!?: Major economic firm thinks the Fed will have to aggressively cut rates in order to avoid sending the country into major recession next year

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 6 times in 2024 as the economy shows clear signs of cooling down, ING says

The forecast interest-rate cuts would bring the effective Federal Funds rate to about 3.83% at the end of 2024.

www.businessinsider.com/economy-slowdown-interest-rates-outlook-federal-reserve-cuts-next-year-2023-11

% Mortgage Rates: Decided to hang tight among mixed economic news, but markets seem generally positive about the possibility of rate cuts through 2024

MBS Dashboard - MBS Prices, Treasuries and Analysis

View MBS prices and charts and follow the day's market activity with Micro News and Commentary.

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

🔍 Coming this week: Big numbers from the consumer price index and retail sales

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 The Media Part 

🤖 Google just entered the AI chat, and things are about to get ugly…

Have you heard of Google's new answer to ChatGPT that just launched last week?? It's this AI model they've named Gemini, and let me tell you, it's Google's big play in the AI race and it’s already making waves. About a year after ChatGPT hit the scene, Google and DeepMind AI are rolling out Gemini. And it's not just another chatbot – it's a whole family of AI models in one place!

So, there's Gemini Nano, the lightweight version. It's designed for mobile devices, like the Google Pixel 8 Pro. The cool part? It can summarize your audio clips and even whip up quick replies to messages. Think of it as your pocket-sized AI helper.

Then there's the middle child, Gemini Pro. It's got a bit more muscle for complex stuff. Right now, it's the brains behind Google’s chatbot, Bard. If you're into Google Cloud, you'll get to play with it starting December 13.

The big kahuna is Gemini Ultra. This one's a beast, aimed at data centers and the corporate crowd. It's coming out next year and will power Bard Advanced. The kicker? This version juggles text, images, audio, and video all at once – something straight out of a sci-fi movie.

Google's betting big that Gemini will give OpenAI's ChatGPT and its siblings a run for their money. Gemini Pro is already said to be smarter than GPT-3.5, and Gemini Ultra might just outdo GPT-4. Imagine having one tool that can write, create images, pick music to match a mood, suggest craft projects, and even point out mistakes in your kid’s handwritten math homework. That's what Google's aiming for with Gemini. It's like they're building an all-in-one AI swiss army knife, and everyone else better watch out before they get cut!

Google releases its AI competitor to GPT-4

If Gemini can really do what Google promises, it could chip away at OpenAI’s lead in the large language model space.

www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2023/12/07/google-releases-its-ai-competitor-to-gpt-4

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This time of year is best for preparation. Like making a business plan for the next year or getting your social media ready to actually make it’s way into the algorithm. Whatever you’ve got planned, let’s work on it together!

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

NMNLS 1150795

Movement Mortgage
9726 Old Bailes Road, Suites 121 & 130, Fort Mill, South Carolina 29707

NC-I-211026, SC-MLO-1150795, AR-128178, MO-1150795, OK-MLO29209 | Movement Mortgage LLC. All rights reserved. NMLS ID #39179 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Interest rates and products are subject to change without notice and may or may not be available at the time of loan commitment or lock-in. Borrowers must qualify at closing for all benefits. For more licensing information please visit movement.com/legal.


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