I'll say it... Jerome is sooo HOT 🥵

Especially at the Jackson Hole

Author

John Birke
August 26, 2024

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The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

August 26th, 2024

Love At First Sight Bachelor Nation GIF by The Bachelorette

Is it just me or is Jerome like, super hot right now?

A Jackson Hole might sound like the next move you want your husband to try, but sadly it’s a bit more boring than that. Though markets thought it was pretty sexy.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium, much to the delight of markets as he finally confirmed that it’s time for a change of course. That means rates are headed down and we are EXCITED about it!

Oh, also:

  1. Home sales are finally on the ups

  2. but not all buyers are feeling frisky.

  3. Partly because existing home prices are sky high.

  4. Plus job growth isn’t what we thought

  5. So it’s finally time for the Fed to reverse course

  6. And markets were hot for it

Plus, have you heard of Recession Pop? It’s the new sensation that’s unfortunately sweeping the nation!

Really quick, if someone forwarded this email to you, don’t settle for being at mooch. Sign up and get it for yourself here 👇

Ok, let’s get to it!

 The Mortgage Part 

🏡 Homes sales: Finally on the ups for the first time in months as dropping rates bring some buyers back online

Home sales rose in July for the first time in five months

At the end of the month there were 1.33 million homes on the market, an increase of 0.8% from June and 19.8% higher than July 2023.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/22/july-home-sales-break-4-month-losing-streak-as-supply-rises-nearly-20percent.html

✋ But not all of them: Most buyers are still holding out for rates to drop even more before jumping in

Homebuyers Reveal How Low Mortgage Rates Must Go Before They Buy a House

www.realtor.com/news/trends/waiting-for-interest-rates-to-drop-before-buying-a-house/

👷‍♀️ Not to mention: Existing homes are now more costly than new construction homes

Median Priced Existing Homes Less Affordable Than New Homes in Second Quarter

In the second quarter of 2024, the CHI found that a family earning the nation’s median income of $97,800 must spend 38% of its income to cover the mortgage payment on a median-priced new single-family home.

eyeonhousing.org/2024/08/median-priced-existing-homes-less-affordable-than-new-homes-in-second-quarter

🔢 And our numbers are off: Job growth isn't as good as we thought as totals were revised down, big time

U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different

There's a lot of debate about how much signal to take from the 818,000 downward revisions to U.S. payrolls — the largest since 2009. Is it signaling recession?

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/us-job-growth-revised-down-by-the-most-since-2009-why-this-time-is-different.html

👍 So it’s time for a change: Fed Chair Powell essentially confirms that it's time to start dropping rates

Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’

Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/23/fed-chair-powell-indicates-interest-rate-cuts-ahead-the-time-has-come-for-policy-to-adjust.html

😢 And markets are hot for him: Stocks surged after confirmation that we’ll see rate cuts at the next meeting in September.

Dow closes more than 450 points higher as Powell signals Fed rate cuts are coming: Live updates

Stocks rallied on Friday after the central bank chief spoke in Jackson Hole, boosting the indexes to weekly gains.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/22/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

% Mortgage Rates: Followed the rest of the market and ended the week better than where they started

MBS Dashboard - MBS Prices, Treasuries and Analysis

View MBS prices and charts and follow the day’s market activity with Micro News and Commentary.

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

🔍 Coming this week: I know I always say this, but we have a CRITICAL inflation report in the PCE this week!

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 The Media Part 

Feeling down about this economy? Enter ”recession pop”

Check out this mini article by Mark Reeth and Lucy Brewster at Morning Brew:

If you’ve been panicking about your portfolio but also addicted to Spotify lately, there’s a reason: “recession pop.”

The TikTok-based theory states that the worse the economy is doing, the harder the music slaps. The idea is that people escape into music when times are tough, and the music industry responds with upbeat, positive hits celebrating life.

But recession pop could also be a leading indicator of an economic downturn—meaning that as music gets livelier, the economy is actually getting worse. Listeners are starting to worry that as we get deeper into “Pop Girl Summer,” a period of undeniable bangers, it could mean we’re all dancing our way to disaster.

Some of our favorite recession pop songs from this summer with their full, unredacted titles include:

“I Had Some Help (from my parents paying my bills)” — Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen

“Espresso (prices are getting insane)” — Sabrina Carpenter

“Good Luck, Babe! (with paying off your student loans)” — Chappell Roan

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This week watch that PCE number because it could be the straw that determines if the camel’s back is breaking or if it’s just a bit bruised.

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

@johnbmortgage

479.445.5062

NMNLS 1150795