Kamala WINS and lower rates DON'T❓

At least, for now...

Author

John Birke
September 02, 2024

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

September 2nd, 2024

GIF by UFC

Holding our breath waiting for the rates to save this housing market

Well we all got our hopes up that the recent drop in mortgage rates would spur some more activity in the market. But so far, no windfall. In fact, things might be getting worse as potential buyers hit the “sit and wait” button.

But it’s not all doom and gloom…

  1. We’ve hit a new low

  2. though home prices are up (with an asterisk)

  3. and some might be getting even harder to buy

  4. But at least rates are about to head further south

  5. the question is by how much?

  6. It’ll be up to the jobs to tell us

Plus, Kamala Harris is WINNING in one key area this campaign season

Really quick, if someone forwarded this email to you, don’t settle for being at mooch. Sign up and get it for yourself here 👇

How about we mix it up and start with media this week? Let’s get to it!

 The Media Part 

Why is Kamala winning on social media?

Regardless of your political views, or who you think is going to win the presidency in November, there’s a clear victor thus far in the social media realm: Kamala Harris.

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign has gone all-in on social media, driven by a Gen Z “mobilization team” that’s expertly riding the wave of viral content and TikTok trends. This team of young digital natives is using humor and cheeky taunts to draw sharp contrasts between Harris and former President Trump. The results? Instant success. The @KamalaHarris TikTok account skyrocketed to 2 million followers in just 24 hours after she became the presidential nominee, now boasting over 4.8 million. Meanwhile, the rebranded @KamalaHQ account has surged from 440K to 3.9 million followers, powered by a mix of "brat summer," coconut tree memes, and other trending moments that resonate with younger voters.

The same crew that ran the Biden campaign’s more reserved social media has shifted gears for Harris, going full throttle with a sassier, more ruthless approach. They’ve embraced memes as a strategic tool, breaking through the clutter of a challenging media landscape to connect with hard-to-reach voters. The campaign’s digital operation, featuring more than 175 staffers and collaborations with hundreds of influencers, has scaled up earlier and bigger than in 2020. With rapid response teams reacting to trends in real-time—often without higher-ups' approval—the campaign has mastered the art of the quick hit. From snappy TikToks to mocking sound effects aimed at Trump, Harris’ digital team is pulling no punches, turning online moments into political momentum at lightning speed.

Now the question is, will that be enough to bring these herder-to-reach voters to the polls for a Harris win? Or is it nothing but flash-pans and shiny objects? Either way it’s getting A LOT of attention and we could all learn a thing or two about branding and engagement from this top-shelf strategy.

What's behind Harris' social media dominance

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign has dominated social media with an influx of viral memes and cutting taunts of the opposition — and behind the keyboard is a team of Gen Zers.

www.axios.com/2024/08/27/kamala-harris-social-media-dominance

 The Mortgage Part 

🏡 A new low: Homes sales dropped hard in July to the lowest level on record as buyers decide to wait and see what the market does.

Fewer people are purchasing homes, despite high demand—buyers are in 'wait and see' mode

Despite a pent-up demand for homes, the number of pending home sales has hit a new low.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/30/fewer-people-are-purchasing-homes-despite-high-demand.html

💰 Home prices are up, but: Homes prices continue to climb, but have been getting lower in their gains. There seems to be a bit of a leveling off in the works

Home Price Gains Continue to Slow

Home price growth continues to decelerate, according to the recent release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI). The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.89% for June 2024, slowing from a revised rate of 3.28% in May. Home prices have not seen an outright decrease since

eyeonhousing.org/2024/08/home-price-gains-continue-to-slow

💧 And some might get harder to buy: If the flood insurance program isn’t renewed soon, homes in flood plains may be impossible to sell or buy

A 'man-made disaster' could make it trickier to buy or sell a home in some areas this fall, real estate expert says

Looming expiration for the largest U.S. flood insurance program may hold up some home sales this fall, just as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/how-national-flood-insurance-program-deadline-may-affect-home-buyers.html

📉 But we’ve got inflation where we want it: PCE inflation came showed core prices are up 2.5% since last year, as expected. The case for rate drops are getting stronger!

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected

The PCE price index was expected to rise 0.2% in July and 2.5% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/30/pce-inflation-july-2024.html

👍 Now the questions is, how much?: Fed rates are bound to drop in September, but will it be by .25% or a full .5%?

The next big debate is how low US interest rates will go | Forexlive

What's the floor for Fed funds?

www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-next-big-debate-is-how-low-us-interest-rates-will-go-20240828

% Mortgage Rates: Had some ups and downs but stayed mostly flat. Under 6.5% though, so that’s good!

MBS Dashboard - MBS Prices, Treasuries and Analysis

View MBS prices and charts and follow the day’s market activity with Micro News and Commentary.

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

🔍 Coming this week: Unemployment numbers are on the way. A good reading means a smaller rate drop, but bad numbers mean the Fed may drop their rate faster.

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This week, whether you love or hate her, watch the content coming out from the Harris campaign. You don’t have to agree with the message, but you do have to agree that they’re really getting it across. How can you do the same for your audience?

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

@johnbmortgage

479.445.5062

NMNLS 1150795