I repeat, this is NOT a recession!

And it might never be...

Author

John Birke
August 19, 2024

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

August 19th, 2024

Adam Sandler GIF by IFC

The economy’s answer every time we talk about how hard things are right now

There’s a bit of a disconnect in this market between the data, which says the economy in feeling great, and those of us living in said economy, who are not.

  1. Inflation is down, and looks to be staying down

  2. and some goods are even DEflating a bit.

  3. Builders are cutting prices too

  4. And we are taking advantage by spending like crazy!

  5. The Fed says we haven’t been further from a recession in a decade

  6. but most of us think we’re already knee deep in it.

Plus, have you ever wondered what counts as a “view” on the different social platforms? Well, Nick Cicero just answered that for you

Really quick, if someone forwarded this email to you, don’t settle for being at mooch. Sign up and get it for yourself here 👇

Ok, let’s get to it!

 The Mortgage Part 

📢 And stay down!: Inflation has been steadily dropping for months now, and lowered again in July. It’s looking like things are finally under control

Annual inflation rate slows to 2.9% in July, lowest since 2021

The consumer price index was expected to show a 0.2% increase in July and a 3% gain over the past year.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/14/july-consumer-price-index.html

📉 Some prices are even dropping: Not only are prices increasing slower, but some, like apples, mens’ wear and car loans are downright tanking.

Here's the deflation breakdown for July 2024 — in one chart

Prices in some areas of the U.S. economy have deflated, meaning they've declined.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/deflation-inflation-cpi-july-2024.html

👷‍♀️ Builders are on the bandwagon too: New homes are getting price cuts as builders are still weary of coming rate cuts and the housing market

www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240815304/one-third-of-home-builders-are-slashing-prices-as-confidence-in-the-market-falls-to-8-month-low

🤑 And we’re on a spending spree: Retail sales spiked more than 3X what was expected, which could mean we have more money than we think.

Consumer spending jumped in July as retail sales were up 1%, much better than expected

Retail sales were projected to increase 0.3% in July, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/retail-sales-july-2024-.html

👍 Even the Fed says we should be fine: The latest survey shows that we expect inflation to continue to drop for some time.

Three-year inflation outlook hits record low in New York Fed consumer survey

Consumers grew more confident in July that inflation will be less of a problem in the coming years.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/three-year-inflation-outlook-hits-record-low-in-new-york-fed-consumer-survey.html

😢 But we’re still hurting: 3 in 5 of us still think we’re in a recession, even though technically we aren’t. Because prices have gone up and stayed up, so our economy looks strong, but our buying power is wrecked

59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds

Although the economy is growing, consumers remain somewhat pessimistic.

www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/59percent-of-americans-think-the-us-is-in-a-recession-report-finds.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate

% Mortgage Rates: But even with the non-commitment, rates dropped to their lowest point since last summer

MBS Dashboard - MBS Prices, Treasuries and Analysis

View MBS prices and charts and follow the day's market activity with Micro News and Commentary.

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

🔍 Coming this week: Home sale numbers and some Fed speeches

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 The Media Part 

So what is a “view”, really?

When you’re checking in on your metrics and watching your view count soar on your latest viral video, what does that really mean? Are watchers staying through the whole video, or a few secondo, or immediately scrolling? What the heck is a “view” anyway!?

Well, social media thinker Nick Cicero posted the an update on this, along with a helpful infographic on LinkedIn last week. Check it out:

It feels like Groundhog Day all over again -… | 53 comments

👀 What’s in a View? 👀 It feels like Groundhog Day all over again - Instagram is getting rid of the impressions metric, the plays metric, and replacing… | 53 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7227309784855650304

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This week talk to your social media audience about all this 👆 Their finances are important to them and there’s a lot of news about markets and rates, etc. Be their guide and show them where they fit in this big picture.

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

NMNLS 1150795

Movement Mortgage
9726 Old Bailes Road, Suites 121 & 130, Fort Mill, South Carolina 29707

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