SPECIAL TRUMP EDITION! 👱

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

November 18^th, 2024

So now that this damn election is finally over and Trump is officially about to be president again, it’s time to figure out what that means for our industry. Without getting political, let’s just look at it from an economist’s point of view.

Will he come through on his promises to lower rates and home prices? And how will he actually do it?

Or, now that he won, will we find out that was all just talk to get elected and he’ll fry some bigger fish instead?

Or or, are there other factors at play that he has no control over.

Maybe a mix of them all?? Here’s my take 👇👇

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@johnbmortgage

This is not a political statement, this is just how our economy works. Economists say that added tariffs (taxes on imported goods) will a... See more

Now obviously it’s hard to predict what he’s actually going to do or if he can even accomplish what he’s got planned with such a narrow majority in Congress. But let’s look at what he wants and the impact that could have.

To be honest, he hasn’t really said a whole lot about how he plans to save the housing market. But there are a couple things that he’s mentioned he hopes to do as POTUS 2.0:

1️⃣ DEPORT millions of immigrants and free up a LOT of housing. However, most of those people rent because it’s so difficult to buy a home without legal papers. So expelling them all at once (if that’s even possible) would probably crash the rental market. But that’s a conversation for another time. It would also make construction labor more expensive, as many workers in the industry could be deported. This would actually cause construction to slow and prices to increase pretty rapidly.

2️⃣ OPEN a lot of federal lands up for development. This could help spur more construction and increase inventory, which could drive down prices… in theory. The only problem there is the land he plans to open up is pretty remote. Nobody really wants to live out there, and there’s very little infrastructure to even make it buildable. On top of that, builders in many markets are already pulling back on new development. They wouldn’t have much incentive to add to the supply in areas with little demand and drive their own prices (and profits) down.

3️⃣ Now this one WILL have a MAJOR impact on housing. TARIFFS. If you don’t recall from civics class, tariffs are taxes on imports. They’re designed to make imported goods more expensive so people will want to buy things made in America. Sounds good right? It very well can be!

But it takes a very long time for our local manufacturing to catch up with increased demand (if it ever actually happens). And until then it means those new taxes get passed to consumers. That means prices go UP! And basically everything we buy (even things made in America) involve imports and potential new tariffs in some way. And prices going up means inflation does too.

And increased inflation means anyone… anyone? (In Ben Stein’s voice) That’s right, higher rates! In fact, the bond market has already gotten spooked about possible inflation under Trump, and mortgage rates have shot up like a rocket the last week and change since election day. So if these new tariffs truly come to be, plan on the current state of the housing market to persist for some time.

Now I know what you’re thinking: “JohnB must be some commie Trump-hating liberal nutcase!” I promise, I think ALL politicians have good and bad, but are mostly idiots! And I don’t think Kamala had any better plans or would have created any sort of windfall for our beloved industry. This is just based on the research and opinion of basically every economist, wall street trader (who essentially decides what mortgage rates will be), and housing market expert out there.

But if you made it this far, fist I want to say THANK YOU for reading along. Next, what do you think is in store for the housing market? I very well could be wrong, and I truly hope that’s the case. Time will tell!

% Mortgage Rates: continued their northern trajectory over fears of future inflation returning and Jerome Powell saying he’s in no rush to drop rates

🔍 Coming this week:  Market sentiments, housing starts, and home sale data

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This week do your own research. I gave you my take based on what I’ve been studying. But there’s always another way to look at things, maybe I and my sources have it wrong.

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

@johnbmortgage

[email protected]

479.445.5062

NMNLS 1150795