This comfort is getting... uncomfortable

And mortgage rates are feeling awkward

October 14, 2024

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

October 14th, 2024

Sad Carry On GIF by MasterChef Junior

Mortgage rates trying to get awkwardly comfortable in their un-comfort

So these numbers keep telling us that things are going as we hoped. Which feels weird. And mortgage rates seem to agree with this awkward calm.

  1. We’re feeling pretty good about the future

  2. And oddly enough, the Fed agrees with us

  3. and so do the numbers.

  4. In fact, we may have already won!

Plus, TikTok takes a mental health leap forward!

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Ok, let’s get to it!

 The Mortgage Part 

📉 Feeling pretty good: Despite recent rate volatility, we feel pretty confident that mortgage rates will be headed south over the next year

Housing Confidence Inches Higher Amid Record-High Optimism Toward Mortgage Rates | Fannie Mae

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 1.8 points in September to 73.9, its highest level in more than two years, as consumers reported survey-high optimism that mortgage rates will decline over the next 12 months.

www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/housing-confidence-inches-higher-amid-record-high-optimism-toward-mortgage-rates

🏦 The Fed actually agrees:  The Federal Reserve seems to be in the same camp, saying they will continue to lower rates if inflation keeps dropping. The goal is now to maximize employment

Fed's Kugler Makes Case for More Rate Cuts if Inflation Keeps Easing

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday she strongly supported the U.S. central bank's recent interest rate cut and will support further reductions if inflation continues to ease as she expects.

money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-10-08/feds-kugler-says-she-supports-more-rate-cuts-if-inflation-keeps-easing

👍 And we seem to be on track there: Though inflation increased a little in September, it seems to be stable. Which is great news for rates

Inflation rate hit 2.4% in September, topping expectations; jobless claims highest since August 2023

The consumer price index was expected to show a 0.1% increase in September and a 2.3% gain from a year ago, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/cpi-inflation-september-2024.html

😲 Actually, we may have already won: Goldman Sachs expects that the PCE inflation rate will show that we may have already hit the Fed’s 2% target when it comes out later this month

The Federal Reserve may have pretty much just hit its 2% inflation target

In fact, economists at Goldman Sachs think the Fed may already be there.

www.cnbc.com/2024/10/11/the-federal-reserve-may-have-pretty-much-just-hit-its-2percent-inflation-target.html

% Mortgage Rates: Remained flat around 6.6% without any market-shifting data

MBS Dashboard - MBS Prices, Treasuries and Analysis

View MBS prices and charts and follow the day’s market activity with Micro News and Commentary.

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

🔍 Coming this week:  A light Holiday week with some retail sales and important housing start data

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 The Media Part 

TikTok takes a big mental health step

TikTok is stepping up its mental health support initiatives just in time for World Mental Health Day. They've announced a partnership with Headspace, offering 20,000 creators free access to the app for six months. This is a big move aimed at addressing creator burnout—something nearly 80% of influencers face at some point. Beyond just offering help, TikTok wants to empower creators to share their personal experiences with mental health, encouraging open conversations on the platform.

TikTok’s not stopping there. They've developed a new Creator Academy Playbook, designed to guide influencers on how to address mental health topics in their content responsibly. This includes tips on terminology and accessing helpful resources. On top of that, they’re hosting a U.S.-based webinar featuring mental health experts to help creators manage stress and boost well-being.

Another key initiative comes from TikTok's collaboration with the World Health Organization. Together, they’re working with trusted health influencers to combat misinformation and myths about mental health. These videos aim to empower users to better manage their own mental health.

Overall, these programs are a solid effort from TikTok to provide meaningful mental health support, with the free access to Headspace for creators likely to have the most immediate impact.

TikTok Offers Free Access to Mental Health Support for Creators

Some important new programs from TikTok.

www.socialmediatoday.com/news/tiktok-offers-free-access-mental-health-support-creators/729526/

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This week go tell a story. Don’t hold back, get personal and connect with your audience. It doesn’t matter what it’s about, it will connect with the right people. Your people!

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

@johnbmortgage

479.445.5062

NMNLS 1150795