Wait, does the Fed actually know what it's doing after all? 🤔

This Week's Mortgage + Media Update with JohnB

Author

John Birke
November 20, 2023

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

November 20th, 2023

Last Week:

We actually had some strong signs that the economy is slowing down the way the Fed (and consequently the rest of us) wanted

  1. Building permits and homebuilder sentiment is down, but only for now

  2. Retail sales were down, which is super weird but so good!

  3. Jobless claims were up in step with last month’s report, another Fed win

  4. The BIG ONE: Inflation is slowing, and could be even lower than we think

  5. Mortgage rates had a great week

  6. WARNING: Do not get comfortable just yet!

Plus, Microsoft puts AI on the front burner with some billies in their eyes 🤑, TikTok says to stay a while, and Meta just gave you some 🔥 new creation tools

Really quick, if someone forwarded this email to you, don’t settle for being at mooch. Sign up and get it for yourself here 👇

Ok, now let’s get to it!

 The Mortgage Part 

Check out this week’s video 📽👇

🏡 New Builds: Permits for new homes was down last month, likely because of rates which tracks with homebuilder sentiment down again. But there could be a delayed reaction coming…

Single-Family Permits Down in September 2023 | Eye On Housing

Over the first nine months of 2023, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 693,908. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 13.3% below the September 2022 level of 800,424.

eyeonhousing.org/2023/11/single-family-permits-down-in-september-2023

Builder Sentiment Down Again, but Better Building Conditions are in View

High mortgage rates that approached 8% earlier this month continue to hammer builder confidence, but recent economic data suggest housing conditions may improve in the coming months.

eyeonhousing.org/2023/11/builder-sentiment-down-again-but-better-building-conditions-are-in-view

🛍 Retail Sales: For the first time in a while, we just weren’t feeling as spendy as usual. This could be a good indicator of slowing inflation and a cooling market

Retail sales in the U.S. fall for first time in 7 months

Consumer spending could slow in holiday-shopping season

www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231115317/retail-sales-in-the-us-fall-for-first-time-in-7-months

👷‍♀️ Jobs might be shifting: After the big jobs report showed hiring was slowing down we got excited. Well this week we saw jobless claims bump up as well, meaning maybe this wasn’t a one-off

Jobless claims climb to three-month high in sign labor market is cooling

he number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week jumped to a three-month high of 231,000, suggesting some softening around the edges of...

www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-to-three-month-high-of-231-000-in-sign-labor-market-is-cooling-98cd8771

💰 Inflation is Dropping: More good news, inflation is continuing to cool off. And some suggest we may even be on our way below the Fed’s target 2% already

Where prices fell in October 2023 — in one chart

Some prices in the U.S. economy are deflating, meaning consumers are seeing prices fall.

www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/where-prices-fell-in-october-2023-in-one-chart.html

Lawrence Yun on LinkedIn: Mortgage rates are plunging with the news of inflation calming.

Consumer prices rose by 3.2% in September, even with the rent component still showing a hefty

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7130223518205571074

% Mortgage Rates: Dropped significantly on this data we got throughout the week

Huge Drop in Mortgage Rates After Friendly Inflation Data

The jobs report brought an outstanding week for Treasuries and mortgage rates to an outstanding conclusion

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11142023

🙄 Don’t Get Comfy: There’s a lot of excitement about rates dropping sooner than expected after all this economic slowdown data. But the Fed warns that they’ll need to see some consistency before they commit

The market thinks the Fed is going to start cutting rates aggressively. Investors could be in for a letdown

Markets may be at least a tad optimistic, particularly considering the cautious approach central bank officials have taken.

www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/the-market-thinks-rates-will-come-down-a-lot-it-could-be-let-down.html

Fed's Mester wants 'much more evidence' that inflation has been defeated

The Cleveland Fed president said she's reserving judgment on where policymakers go from here.

www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/feds-mester-wants-much-more-evidence-that-inflation-has-been-defeated.html

🔍 Coming this week: Existing Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and WAY too much turkey 🦃

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 The Media Part 

🤖 Microsoft is about to make some giga money on the low

Microsoft got little attention when it announced its Copilot suite of AI tools at its Ignite event! These tools are game-changes and they reported that 40% of Fortune 100s are ALREADY using them! Oh they also mentioned that this tech is gonna make them a cool $10 BILLION A YEAR by 2026… nbd 🤯

Here's what the tools look like:

- Copilot for Azure is an AI assistant that helps Azure cloud customers with things like configuration, troubleshooting, and optimization. It uses large language models to provide recommendations based on a customer's specific setup.

- Copilot for Service integrates with CRM platforms like Dynamics 365 to help customer service agents by answering questions, providing account info, and making suggestions. It will be able to summarize emails and notes in the future.

- Copilot in Dynamics 365 Guides uses AI to provide frontline workers with overlays and instructions when maintaining equipment. It recognizes what workers are looking at and responds with relevant information.

- Copilot Studio allows enterprises to customize Copilot with their own data and processes. They can build tailored "copilots" like chatbots and deploy them across channels.

The Copilot products aim to grow Microsoft's presence in AI/generative AI. The company believes tools like Copilot Studio will drive further adoption of Azure and other Microsoft services. Plan on seeing a lot more of these tools, and this is just the start!

Microsoft unveils new AI tools Copilot Azure, Copilot for Service and Copilot Studio at Ignite event | TechCrunch

Three new Copilot AI offerings debuted at Ignite 2023: Copilot for Azure, Copilot for Service and Copilot in Dynamics 365 Guides.

techcrunch.com/2023/11/15/microsoft-now-has-a-copilot-for-almost-everything

🤳 Still think TikTok is still just short vids of dumb kids doing ridiculous dances? WRONG

I got this message from the trend-generator this week, showing that 1 minute videos are getting posted 60% more in just the last year.

I've been saying for a while that this is becoming more important for your content. Your audience is looking for value, not just quick entertainment. Give them the expertise they want and get yourself top of mind.

Oh and don't forget, what's happening on TT is soon to be next on every other platform... so get used to it. Those memes and trending audio can only get you so far!

💪 Meta just got some new upgrades

Here are 3 new features Instagram and Facebook just added for their creators!

A/B testing with Reels

You'll be able to test 4 different captions and thumbnails when you make Reels on your phone. Whichever variation performs best in the first 30 minutes will stay up on your page/profile. Pretty cool right? Now you can see exactly which combo of caption and thumbnail your audience responds to best!

Achievements

Instagram and Facebook are rolling out these new "achievements" on the professional dashboard. You can see which ones you've earned already and which ones you have yet to accomplish.

When you hit certain milestones, Instagram will give you a shoutout! This can help you get more visibility and reach for your content. They really want you to keep posting good stuff!

Insights

They finally added retention graph for Reels. TikTok has had that for a minute and now you can see how long people actually watched your Reels and when they dropped off. Super helpful for understanding what content resonates with your audience!

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. You’ve probably got some pilgrim hats to wear while you put on your stretchy pants, so be thankful for what you’ve got while you dig in and enjoy this week with family and friends and tryptophan commas 😴

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

NMNLS 1150795

Movement Mortgage
9726 Old Bailes Road, Suites 121 & 130, Fort Mill, South Carolina 29707

NC-I-211026, SC-MLO-1150795, AR-128178, MO-1150795, OK-MLO29209 | Movement Mortgage LLC. All rights reserved. NMLS ID #39179 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Interest rates and products are subject to change without notice and may or may not be available at the time of loan commitment or lock-in. Borrowers must qualify at closing for all benefits. For more licensing information please visit movement.com/legal.


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