Well that's good news!

For the most part

September 30, 2024

The only newsletter (probably) where you can get the latest market trends, mortgage news, and social + AI updates all in one place

September 30th, 2024

Christian Bale News GIF by Justin

We just get very excited about good news, sue us.

Well last week wasn’t nearly as newsy as the one before, but some notable happenings did… happen

  1. Prices are slowing and we’re just off the mark

  2. and not just on homes but on, well, everything.

  3. And things look to get better, but we’re not sure how fast.

  4. Though it doesn’t seem like we actually believe that

  5. and a bad omen may be lurking above our heads.

Plus, TikTok just made it so you can go back and unscrew your screwups! Finally!

Really quick, if someone forwarded this email to you, don’t settle for being at mooch. Sign up and get it for yourself here 👇

Ok, let’s get to it!

 The Mortgage Part 

@johnbmortgage

🔥Market Update: Sept 30th, 2024🔥 🏡 Prices unpeaked: House price gains have slowed in recent years and are 1.5% off their peak. 📉 Inflation... See more

🏡 Prices unpeaked: House price gains have slowed in recent years and are 1.5% off their peak.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 ye...

www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-15.html

📉 Inflation is off peak too: The Feds favorite inflation indicator, the PCE, showed prices rising at just 2.2% in an unexpected and very welcomed twist.

Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 0.1% in August and 2.3% from a year ago.

www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/pce-inflation-august-2024.html

🔥 Winter is coming, but we’re just warming up: Consensus is that we will see rates continuing down in the future. But there’s debate on how fast that will be.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari sees a slower pace of rate cuts ahead

Kashkari said Monday that he expects to dial down the pace of interest rate reductions after the central bank eased policy by a half percentage point last week.

www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/minneapolis-fed-president-kashkari-sees-slower-pace-of-rate-cuts-ahead.html

🤔 But we aren’t really buying it: Despite positive data and market outlooks, consumer confidence is on the wane

Consumer Confidence Dips Amid Job Market Concerns

Consumer confidence fell to a 3-month low in September due to growing concerns about the job market, despite the labor market remaining healthy.

eyeonhousing.org/2024/09/consumer-confidence-dips-amid-job-market-concerns

⛈️ It could be a bad omen: Getting a job is getting harder, which could be causing our negative outlook. But is there something to it?

Finding a job now is harder than any time since the pandemic. Bad omen for the economy?

How bad is the jobs market? Even job recruiters have been struggling to keep their own jobs, never mind finding work for others.

www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240925308/finding-a-job-now-is-harder-than-any-time-since-the-pandemic-bad-omen-for-the-economy

% Mortgage Rates: Another flat week as the market watches for some more consequential data

MBS Dashboard - MBS Prices, Treasuries and Analysis

View MBS prices and charts and follow the day’s market activity with Micro News and Commentary.

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

🔍 Coming this week: A little sales and a lot of jobs numbers

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 The Media Part 

How you feeling?

I feel like I’ve seen and heard of some fairly sizable deterioration of the overall mental health of people in my sphere. I’m nut if you have seen the same thing, but I’ll stress again, we need to be checking on our people.

That includes our kids, specifically teens that are in the world of social media. But big Mark Z doesn’t agree.

Mark Zuckerberg pushed back against claims that social media directly harms teen mental health, saying that most research doesn't show a causal link. He highlighted the difficulty in proving causality but acknowledged that social media has both positive and negative effects. While

Meta plans to comply with child safety laws, Zuckerberg believes the focus should be on providing parental controls. He also emphasized that age verification should be handled by app store owners like Google and Apple, not individual platforms, and expressed concern over push notifications, and the distractions they cause, being a bigger mental health issue.

But what do you think, are there some in your life struggling with mental health? Particularly those teens under pressure to be Insta-perfect? Make sure you’re checking in on your people, including the “strong” ones!

Mark Zuckerberg says there’s ‘no causal connection’ between social media and teen mental health

US lawmakers think otherwise.

www.theverge.com/2024/9/25/24254044/mark-zuckerberg-meta-social-media-teen-mental-health

Well that’s it for the best (and likely only) Mortgage AND Media Newsletter out there. This week check on your people. Your friend that’s struggling to the family member who’s usually the glue keeping everyone else together. We all need a check in from time to time. So stop thinking you’ll be a burden and see how they’re doing.

And as always, I’m happy to help you and your clients with anything mortgage, marketing, or social media. See you next week and

Thanks for reading!

John Birke | Mortgage Advisor | Content Coach

@johnbmortgage

479.445.5062

NMNLS 1150795